The deadly 5.7-magnitude earthquake in Bangladesh on Friday morning may have been a “foreshock” signalling the possibility of a much stronger quake in the future, experts warned, pointing to the region’s long-overdue seismic cycle and the country’s widespread structural fragility.
Professor Mehedi Ahmed Ansary, a seismic engineering specialist at the Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), said historical patterns show the region experiences magnitude-7 earthquakes every 100–125 years and magnitude-8 events every 250–300 years.
“Since no such major earthquakes have occurred after 1930, a risk has developed,” he noted.
He cited the area’s history of devastating quakes since pre-Independence, including the 7.6 Cachar earthquake (1869), the 7.1 Bengal earthquake (1885), the 8.1 Great Indian earthquake (1897), and the 7.6 Srimangal earthquake (1918).
Against that backdrop, he suggested that Thursday’s tremor could be an early indicator of a more powerful seismic event.
The quake, which lasted roughly 20 seconds, exposed serious vulnerabilities in Bangladesh’s infrastructure, particularly in Dhaka, where numerous buildings developed cracks or structural damage.
Ansary said the failures stemmed from long-standing violations of building codes, poor construction materials, and a lack of regulatory oversight.
“There are about 2.1 million buildings in Dhaka. After the Rana Plaza collapse (on May 13, 2013, due to a structural failure) we repeatedly called for inspections. These buildings need to be examined urgently,” he said, urging the government to direct the Rajdhani Unnayan Katripakkha (Capital Development Authority) to begin mandatory assessments and require owners to certify code compliance.
He warned that if a magnitude-7 quake struck within 100 kilometres of the capital, Bangladesh could face 100,000–200,000 deaths and the collapse of 35% of Dhaka’s buildings. Ansary called for a three-tier safety classification — green (safe), yellow (requires retrofitting), and red (immediate evacuation)—as practised in the US, Japan and India.
Rubayet Kabir, head of the Earthquake Observation and Research Centre at the Meteorology Department, said Bangladesh is inherently vulnerable due to its position at the convergence of the Indian and Eurasian plates, with major nearby fault lines such as the Assam Fault, the Dauki Fault, and Myanmar’s Sagaing Fault.
“Since digital monitoring began in 2007, this is the strongest earthquake recorded around Dhaka,” he told The Daily Star, adding that aftershocks remain possible.
Kabir echoed the call for strict enforcement of building codes to ensure new structures can withstand future quakes, stressing that seismic activity in the region is both routine and potentially deadly if preparedness continues to lag behind known risks.
