Bangladesh Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman’s visit to India on Tuesday comes at a moment when both India and Bangladesh appear eager to steady a relationship that has, in recent years, oscillated between pragmatic cooperation and marked strain.
Rahman, who was National Security Advisor in the previous Yunus regime and is often dubbed as pro-American, is seen by South Bloc to be a pragmatic diplomat and the signals emanating from his meeting with his counterpart S Jaishankar will be closely watched not only in South Asia but also beyond the boundaries of this sub-continent.
“We expect Rahman to talk on the Ganga water treaty, on petro-product supplies which we have been helping them with, while we are likely to talk about the stalled connectivity projects railway line linking Tripura to Chittagong, restarting of various train and bus services etc,” said Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty, former Secretary (Economic Relations) in the Ministry of Economic Affairs.
Chakravarty, who has previously been the High Commissioner for India in Dhaka, also pointed out that Rahman would “probably build the ground rules for a possible visit by Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, whom we extended an invitation from our Prime Minister when he was being sworn in.”
Other officials in the MEA said that the optics will be carefully calibrated for the visit. While for Dhaka, the outreach signals an attempt to rebalance ties at a time of domestic political transition and shifting geopolitical currents, for New Delhi, which has increasingly defined its foreign policy through the lens of the Indian Ocean, Bangladesh is not merely a neighbor but a critical partner in securing connectivity, trade routes, and maritime stability.
Officials on both sides have emphasised a “forward-looking and people-centric” relationship, a phrase that reflects both aspiration and necessity.
Sources in Bangladesh’s foreign office said there is a growing recognition within Bangladesh’s political establishment, particularly among policymakers linked to the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, that stable ties with India are indispensable.
Geography alone dictates that reality, but so too does economics, as India remains a key trade partner, energy supplier, and transit route for Bangladesh.
Analysts caution that the relationship continues to be shaped by structural irritants that no single visit can resolve. Principal among them is the sharing of river waters, a perennial source of friction that is once again in focus as the Ganga Waters Treaty approaches its 30-year mark in December.
Originally signed in 1996, the treaty has long been held up as a model of cooperation, but changing hydrological realities, rising demand, and domestic political sensitivities have made its renewal far from straightforward.
“Energy cooperation, by contrast, offers a more immediate avenue for goodwill. India’s recent supply of high-speed diesel to Bangladesh in March, at a time of reported shortages, was not only a practical intervention but also a signal of responsiveness. Such gestures reinforce interdependence, even as both sides remain cautious about overreliance,” pointed out Chakravarty.
In an era marked by volatile global energy markets, exacerbated by conflict in West Asia, energy security has become a shared concern “that could anchor deeper collaboration.”
The normalisation of visa services is another telling indicator of thawing ties. Bangladesh’s decision in late February to resume issuing all categories of visas to Indian citizens reversed a slowdown that had disrupted business, tourism, and people-to-people contact.
“We too do need to step up visa issuance which of course has been quite liberalized since the elections were held last year. These everyday linkages, often overshadowed by high politics, are central to the ‘people-centric’ framework both governments now invoke,” the former High Commissioner said.
Recent diplomatic traffic suggests that Rahman’s visit is part of a broader effort to rebuild momentum.
Bangladesh’s high commissioner to India, Riaz Hamidullah, has already met Mr. Jaishankar as well as Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal, besides a number of other Indian ministers and defence top brass, marking the first such engagements since his appointment last year.
Meanwhile, a quiet but significant visit by Kaiser Rashid Chowdhury, a senior Bangladeshi intelligence official, to New Delhi in early March underscored the security dimension of the relationship, an area where cooperation has historically been strong, and is considered necessary as militancy is rising its head throughout the region.
Official here said India is happy of the way BNP’s government has upheld the spirit of the 1972 Constitution, but at the same time have expressed concern over several actions by the new regime such as including the names of Jamaat-e-Islami leaders and convicted collaborators in parliamentary condolence motions, installing murals of Islamic declarations in the parliamentary chamber, and arresting women and children under anti-terror laws for raising the Liberation War slogan “Joy Bangla”.
The path to a stable partnership is, however, unlikely to be linear. Domestic politics in both countries exert a powerful pull on foreign policy. In Bangladesh, the current leadership must balance outreach to India with sensitivities among constituencies wary of perceived asymmetry.
Jayanta Roy Chowdhury
