The Kashmir Imbroglio And Nuclear Threat

4 mins read

Rizwan Ibn Sultan

On August 5, central government of BJP (Bhartiya Janata Party) fulfills its promise and long pending demand of its parent organization RSS (Rashtriya swayamSewak Sangh) by abrogating the article 370 and 35A of Indian Constitution and bifurcate the state into two union territories. BJP says that article 370 was the biggest hurdle in the way of development of the J&K state.

In fact the Party even blamed the presence of Article 370 for Kashmir problem and said that it only allowed flourishing separatism in Muslim majority state. However, after its revocation, it has created more issues for the centre. Few days ago BJP general secretary Ram Madhav said that 370 was anti-people and biggest hurdle in the development of the Jammu and Kashmir. Speaking about the concerns of the people he said that “the interests of the people of J&K, their land, culture, development and whatever in their interest, the full responsibility of safeguarding these interests is taken up by the government lead by Modiji ”.

This statement of the BJP general secretary came after the ongoing two month shutdown in the valley against the decision taken by the centre. Now, it seems that centre is mulling to assure the people of valley that their land, language, culture and the jobs will be secured and these powers can be given back. Internally another concerning thing for BJP in Kashmir is the unannounced shutdown. Last month US top diplomat Alice Wells had also said that “US is concerned by the widespread detentions, including those of politicians, business leaders and the restrictions on the people of the J&K”.

She said that we hope to see the lifting of restrictions and release of detainees. Subsequently, the government released the mainstream party leaders in Jammu before the Block Development Council elections, but these parties are calling the elections a “mockery of democracy”.

“When the mainstream leaders are behind the bars under preventive custodies in valley, how these elections can be held”.

On the other hand speaking to media governor’s advisor Farooq Ahmad Khan has said that political leaders will be released one by one, “yes one by one after analysis of every individual, they will be released” he said.

While the Union Home Minster Amit Shah had said that restrictions in the valley have been lifted, the people, however, are still refusing to come out and resume the normal life. In most parts of the valley, the normalcy is yet to return, though private transport is safely plying on roads.

Meanwhile, the opponents of Modi government who believe that revocation of Article 370 will be more painful instead a panacea to the existing political problem and downplays the governments claims that its presence had resulted into poor living standards of people.

A report by ORF reveals that only 10 per cent population in state live below the poverty line against a national average of 22 per cent.  It says that states per house hold income stands at Rs 1234 against a national average of Rs 1200 as per the census of 2011-12.

Even on the international level, the BJP government led by Narender Modi has to usher a very secure and strong path of defending his decision with Pakistan leaving no opportunity in internationalizing the issue. The world rather has got divided over it with many countries standing on India side and some supporting the Pakistan in the recently concluded United National General Assembly session, though most of the countries appealed to both the leaderships for restrain.

China along with Malaysia and Turkey openly backed Pakistan. Foreign ministers of UAE and Saudi Arabia visited Pakistan last month, but none spoke against India’s decision. On China’s demand, a closed door meeting was held at UNSC but failed to build any consensus over the contentious matter.

Security Council president Gerry Mathews (permanent representative of South Africa to UNSC), later told, “In the month of August we even couldn’t issue a paragraph after the close door meeting, even couldn’t issue a statement urging both countries to solve the issue through Shimla agreement.”

However, the Pakistan Prime Minster Imran Khan who even before addressing the UNGA expressed his disappointment towards the international community for its silence. He later expressed the anguish in the UNGA and threatened a war that can not only prove catastrophic for two warring nations however, will cover regions beyond two countries given to the nuclear capabilities of two nations.

“What is the world community going to do? Is it going to appease the market of 1.2 billion people or is it going to stand for the justice of humanity.

On the other side PM Modi kept the Kashmir as an internal issue and skipped the word of Kashmir and even didn’t took the name of Pakistan, although he urged the world community to get unite against the terrorism. Pakistan didn’t even present any motion for the voting to debate on Kashmir issue.

HM Amit Shah calls it a diplomatic win for India. “Not a single country raised the Kashmir issue at UN; this is a big diplomatic victory of PM Modi”.

Analysts are making a point here that if the issue is internal (according to BJP) then why world should speak on it and if not then PM Khan’s market of 1.2 billion people comment fits here. They also believe that in coming assembly elections of Maharashtra and Haryana BJP will try hard to get votes on this big decision.

If war takes place between the two Nuclear Nations

PM Imran Khan said that they have no option but to fight till the last breath. Pakistan minster for railways Sheikh Rashid had also predicted war between the two foes in October, November this year. There is a question raising that is the warning of war in future from Khan between the two countries just an attempt to build pressure on India by international community or a real warning from Pakistan in case it failed to galvanize the support across the globe for Kashmir.

In case there is any attempt from Pakistan to trigger a war, it is unlikely India will back off.

Then what will happen?

If the war breaks out and the two countries put their hands on the nuclear buttons, there will be dangerous consequences of it across the globe. According to a study from the university of Colorado Boulder and Rutgers University examined that war between the two countries could kill 50 to 125 million people in less than a week more than the death toll during in all six years in the world war II, and it would have grave consequences that will ripple across globe.

New York Times in its editorial writes that India’s move that bring the two nuclear countries face to face, now the UN Can’t Ignore the Kashmir issue. NYT however, says that “Imran Khan should not keep any hope on UN as it couldn’t solve the issue from many centuries”. So, Concluding here with a question if the war between the two which can kill around 100 million people, who will be responsible for this disaster world community, Pakistan or India?

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