US President Donald Trump has managed to pull both Israel-Iran back from the brink of escalation of hostilities this week, even as uncertainty continues to cloud just how long the current ceasefire will hold.
With more than 100 days into the crisis, the Trump administration is still seeking an agreement that could bring the fighting to an end.
The latest escalation comes post Sunday events, when Israel carried out a strike against a Hezbollah-linked target in Beirut, which was confirmed to have been held in coordination with CENTCOM, though was not directly greenlit by the White House, with Trump reportedly being dissatisfied with the move.
Iran responded by launching missiles towards Israel, following earlier warnings that any Israeli attack on Beirut would merit retaliation.
In a bid to prevent further escalation, Trump spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday evening. According to US officials, the president urged Israel not to retaliate and argued that military action could jeopardise ongoing diplomatic efforts.
Trump later told Axios that he warned Netanyahu he could find himself isolated if Israel returned to full-scale war with Iran.
“These countries were very concerned. They love the deal that we have been negotiating,” Trump said.
Trump also claimed his administration received messages from the Iranians on Monday morning stating a willingness to stop shooting if Israel did the same.
“They called us and said that they are not doing any more attacks and asked us to tell Israel not to do any more attacks,” Trump said.
Netanyahu, however, argued that failing to respond would weaken both Israeli and American deterrence. He maintained that inaction would signal that Iran had gained the upper hand and could discourage future military responses.
While no clear agreement emerged from the discussion, Netanyahu later informed Washington that Israel would proceed with limited strikes, with Israeli officials subsequently holding talks with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio regarding potential targets.
Israel then struck components of a major petrochemical facility in Iran as well as other sites in Tehran. Iran proceeded to respond with further missile attacks, including strikes aimed at Tel Aviv. Both sides engaged in additional rounds of attacks and counter-attacks on Monday, though the hostilities did not escalate much.
Although US forces did not participate in Israeli operations, its assets directly assisted in intercepting incoming Iranian missiles, according to US defence officials.
Trump said several regional governments contacted him during the crisis, urging Washington to restrain Israel and preserve diplomatic momentum. He also claimed that Tehran had signalled via intermediaries that it was prepared to halt attacks if Israel did the same.
Trump is said to have intervened again directly amid reports of Jerusalem preparing for another wave of strikes, though officials on both sides maintain that Netanyahu ultimately agreed with Trump, and suspend the planned attacks against Iran, provided the Islamic Republic refrain from further action.
While Trump has favoured a diplomatic path, and has primarily been focused on preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, Israeli officials have been heavily sceptical of any diplomatic engagement and favour maintaining military pressure.
The US president has adamantly insisted that a deal remains in sight, claiming that an agreement could be reached soon that would prevent Iranian nuclear enrichment.
Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf – one of the key negotiation figures on Tehran’s side – has time and again rejected Trump’s public characterisations of the proposed agreement, saying Tehran has little trust in the US, especially due to Trump’s constant and unpredictable U-turns.
Officials on both sides have come to acknowledge that the priorities of Washington and Jerusalem are increasingly finding themselves at odds with each other. As per an anonymous US official “Bibi needs the war to continue to stay politically alive in Israel, and Trump needs the war to end to stay politically alive in the US.”
