The Bharatiya Janata Party’s breakthrough in West Bengal has altered more than India’s domestic political map. It has also changed the strategic calculus along India’s eastern frontier, particularly in relation to Bangladesh, a country whose post-2024 political transition has increasingly tested New Delhi’s patience.
For several years, the politics of river water sharing between India and Bangladesh had been constrained not merely by diplomacy, but also by the realities of federal politics within India itself. Any agreement on the Teesta River, in particular, required the concurrence of the government in West Bengal, whose leadership under Mamata Banerjee consistently resisted arrangements it believed would hurt North Bengal’s irrigation and agricultural interests.
Top officials warn that the incoming BJP government too may be reluctant to strike a deal on Teesta for the same reasons. North Bengal has now turned into a saffron bastion, electing BJP MLAs in large numbers for the second consecutive time. Teesta waters remain crucial to the primarily agricultural region’s economy.
“Bangladesh’s rhetoric and choice of timing to talk to China on a Teesta-based storage project very near India’s border, as well as assertions made earlier this week that it cannot wait for India’s response on Teesta water sharing, will certainly not help,” pointed out Pinak R Chakravarty, former Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh.
The statement by Bangladesh’s foreign minister Khalilur Rahman on involving China in a sensitive project close to India’s Siliguri Corridor — which links mainland India with the Northeast — comes on top of reports that Bangladesh earlier this year signed a deal with China to build military drones locally. The Bangladesh Navy already operates Chinese submarines, naval vessels, radars, and aircraft. It is also believed to be finalising a mega deal to buy around 20 Chinese-made J-10C fighter jets.
Analysts believe these drones could be deployed along the Indian border and used to gather military intelligence. “Pakistan’s ISI has bolstered its cell in Bangladesh, and one cannot rule out intelligence cooperation between Bangladesh, China, Pakistan, and even Türkiye, which too has strengthened its presence in Dhaka,” pointed out Shantanu Mukharji, former National Security Advisor to Mauritius and a South Asia expert.
However, the bad blood between the two neighbours during the Mohammad Yunus-led interim government’s 18-month stint — when orchestrated protests tauntingly chanted “Dhaka na Delhi” (Dhaka or Delhi) — has subsided somewhat, despite the many irritants that remain. A “double-engine” BJP government at the Centre and in the state is expected to help smooth the process of bringing the two neighbours closer.
India was the first country to welcome Bangladesh’s new Prime Minister Tarique Rahman and expects the new BNP government to take several steps that would help both nations resume trade ties and pending connectivity projects.
Among the first items on Dhaka’s wish list for Delhi is the renewal of the Ganges Water Treaty, which governs the sharing of water reaching the Farakka headworks between the Hooghly and Padma rivers on a 50:50 basis, or potentially on improved terms. The 30-year treaty, signed in 1996, expires this December.
Preliminary talks and the sharing of hydraulic data have already taken place. However, with only months left before the treaty expires, top officials believe the agreement is likely to be temporarily extended and finalised only next year.
“India will of course work on the treaty with Bangladesh, but the flow of water from the Himalayan glaciers that feed the Ganges is declining, and absolute guarantees on the amount that can be shared will pose a problem,” admitted Uttam Sinha, Senior Fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses.
Top officials in the Ministry of External Affairs indicate that India, which has already relaxed visa norms for Bangladesh, may make it even easier for travellers from the neighbouring country to visit for shopping, medical treatment, or education. However, persistent overstays, illegal migration, and concerns over militant movement mean the process will remain gradual rather than unrestricted.
In fact, the sharp rise in rhetoric on both sides over illegal migration could end up straining relations more than water disputes or even Mohammad Yunus’s earlier remarks suggesting India’s Northeast depends on Bangladesh for access to the ocean.
Still, officials point out that the presence of seasoned Bangladesh experts such as Swapan Dasgupta within the BJP’s Bengal leadership, along with the appointment of Kolkata-based businessman-turned-politician Dinesh Trivedi as India’s new envoy to Dhaka, is expected to encourage a more balanced and nuanced approach to ties between Delhi, Kolkata, and Dhaka — potentially paving the way for improved relations despite the “noise emanating from both sides of the Benapole border.”
By Jayanta Roy Chowdhury
