Power inside Iran is yet to be centralised in wake of former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death, with his successor, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, yet to establish the same level of authority as his father, as much of it currently lies with Iran’s hardline paramilitary group, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
According to a New York Times report based on interviews with current and former Iranian officials, members of the IRGC, a senior cleric, and individuals familiar with Khamenei and the country’s leadership structure, Mojtaba, unlike his father, delegates many of his decisions to senior IRGC commanders, having not managed to fully solidify his position as supreme leader of the Islamic Republic.
Abdolreza Davari, a former adviser to former Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, says the younger Khamenei – who has not been seen or heard publicly since taking office in March after his father was killed in a US-Israeli airstrike – is “managing the country as though he is the director of the board,” adding that “he relies heavily on the advice and guidance of the board members… The generals are the board members.”
Echoing the same view, analyst Sanam Vakil of Chatham House opined that Mojtaba Khamenei is not yet fully in control and is often presented with decisions that have already been made, making him more of a ceremonial leader with little actual power, marking a clear departure from the system under his father, who exercised ultimate authority across political and military spheres.
A shadowy figure, who has been wielding strong political influence from behind the curtain, even before his appointment as the supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei has long been an unknown figure, and his lack of public appearance – the last one being during the February 28 attack, where he was badly injured – has only made it harder for him to consolidate his power, as his own communication abilities are limited by his injuries, largely restricted to passing written missives to the IRGC.
As per the NYT report, IRGC commanders have made several key wartime decisions, including attacks on Israel, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and engagement in ceasefire and diplomatic talks with the US, largely without Khamenei’s instruction.
Additionally, the Iranian power structure is also plagued by heavy divisions within Iran’s leadership, particularly over whether to engage with the US, but the report suggests the military faction has the upper hand. That was evident in the recent decision to step back from negotiations amid rising tensions over the US naval blockade.
