Even if the US and Iran manage to eventually reach a peace agreement – which is considered highly uncertain – US consumers are unlikely to see gasoline prices return to pre-war levels anytime soon.
According to energy analysts, while a diplomatic breakthrough between Tehran and Washington could help reopen shipping routes, the damages caused by the disruption on global oil markets from the blockade will take months, if not possibly more than a year, to fully reverse.
According to AAA, the average price for crude, and regular gasoline in the US stood at $4.54 per gallon on Wednesday, up sharply from just under $3 before the war began earlier this year.
Energy analysts broadly agree that while prices would fall if the Strait of Hormuz reopened, the impact will be very gradual.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said consumers could start seeing limited relief within days if shipping traffic through the Gulf resumed normally.
However, he warned the broader recovery would take far longer. “The next third might take 3-6 months, and we’d finally get back to pre-war prices I’d say right now in early/mid 2027,” De Haan said, reports Axios.
Global energy markets remain heavily disrupted after months of conflict, naval blockades and interruptions to one of the world’s most important oil transit corridors, with the afflicted damages unlikely to recover any time soon.
Before the war, roughly a quarter of the world’s seaborne crude oil moved through Hormuz. Since the escalation, tanker traffic has slowed significantly, insurance costs have surged and several Gulf producers have reduced or delayed production because exports could no longer move normally.
According to Rob Smith of S&P Global Commodity Insights, even if the strait is reopened, situation is not likely to move in a linear path, stating “Even assuming a true and lasting end to the military conflict, it would still be several months before traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returns to its pre-war level.”
As per estimates of observers at Rystad Energy, even under an optimistic scenario, a phased reopening could still take at least 30 days before meaningful oil volumes begin moving normally again.
Retail fuel pricing dynamics are also slowing the recovery. Petrol stations often continue selling fuel purchased earlier at higher wholesale prices, meaning pump prices typically rise quickly during crises but fall much more slowly afterwards — a pattern commonly described in trading circles as “rockets and feathers.”
In practical terms, oil prices can drop sharply on positive diplomatic news while consumers still wait weeks or months to feel meaningful savings at the pump. Another major concern hanging over the market is whether shipping companies will ever view the Strait of Hormuz as fully stable again.
Gregory Brew, an analyst with political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, warned that Iran has already demonstrated it can disrupt one of the world’s most critical trade routes whenever tensions rise. “Having demonstrated it once, Iran can now credibly threaten to shut down the Strait of Hormuz in the future,” Brew wrote in an essay for Foreign Affairs.
Other observer groups have noted that the lingering risk alone could keep shipping insurance costs elevated and make traders more cautious long after any ceasefire is signed.
Some experts are now advocating expanded pipeline infrastructure that bypasses Hormuz entirely in order to reduce future dependence on the narrow Gulf chokepoint.
The one point which has seen unanimous agreement in the face of differing assessments is that the average American citizen is going to have to continue paying substantially higher prices for fuel through the entirety of 2026, and this could very well work its way up to 2027.
