Jammu and Kashmir is heading towards a severe water crisis this summer due to an alarming precipitation deficit. While an active Western Disturbance (WD) is expected to bring rain and snow on February 20, experts warn that this will not be sufficient to reverse the ongoing trend of declining winter precipitation.
Kashmir’s weather analyst Faizan Arif has raised serious concerns over the crisis, emphasizing that the current precipitation deficit stands at over 80%.
Amid dry and minimal precipitation during the harsh winter, Jammu and Kashmir is likely heading towards a severe water shortage this summer, he said.
The plains of Kashmir valley received a few spells of snowfall during this winter while higher reaches received light to moderate snowfall. But most part of the winter went dry resulting in dried springs, Gardens, nallahs and other water bodies all across.
“If the situation doesn’t improve, Jammu and Kashmir is staring at a severe water shortage this summer”, the forecaster Faizan said.
He said a fresh, active Western Disturbance (WD) is expected to bring widespread rain and snow on February 20, but will that be enough to undo the damage, he questioned and stated no? While this system might reduce the current precipitation deficit from over 80% to around 70%, it won’t be nearly sufficient”.
He said only a Mega Western Disturbance will turn things around.
“Thankfully, there are indications of multiple, potentially strong, Western Disturbances between February 25 and March 1. Forecasts can change, but I remain hopeful. It all depends on how things unfold – let’s pray for that much-needed mega event”, Arif said.
Another piece of positive news is that rain and snow could continue into the first 20 days of March. However, these predictions are too far off for any certainty. But what if this expected precipitation doesn’t materialize? What if the deficit doesn’t drop below 40%?
In that case, water shortages – especially for irrigation – will likely hit agriculture and horticulture sectors hard.
“I have been warning about this crisis since November, highlighting the alarmingly low water levels of the river Jhelum”, he said.
Faizan said that “over the past four years, I have closely monitored and highlighted this situation, and the trend is clear: winter precipitation is decreasing, and we are now in the sixth straight year of this decline”.
This is a catastrophic situation. How will our rivers survive if glaciers don’t receive the snowfall they need?, he asked.
“We need a serious, proactive approach to tackle this water crisis and must protect our farmers from massive losses and develop secondary solutions to manage this looming disaster”, Faizan remarked.
Even if late February and March bring substantial rain and snow, it won’t erase the deeper problem. This dangerous trend of declining winter precipitation could extend into a seventh, eighth, ninth, or even tenth straight year.
“We cannot afford to wait and watch” he added.
Faizan warned that “We can build internet networks, bridges, railways, and airports – but once water is lost, it cannot be brought back. No technology can generate water to replenish our rivers”.
“We must adapt to climate change, devise strategies to mitigate its impact, and prepare for the future”, he said.
The leadership must urgently convene and treat this developing crisis with the seriousness it deserves.
“?Yes, people may forget about the water crisis if it rains and snows on February 20. But I won’t. And neither should we. This will not change the overall situation. It’s time to act”, he said.
