US President Donald Trump has claimed that Iran’s leadership is “seriously fractured,” but many experts strongly dispute Trump’s claim arguing the situation is far more nuanced.
The White House pointed to Iran skipping a second round of talks with Vice President JD Vance as evidence of a divided government. However, Iran has maintained that negotiations cannot resume until the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports, suggesting a consistent position rather than disarray.
CNN quoted Mehran Kamrava as calling it “a serious misreading of the Iranian leadership,” adding that “the leadership has been quite cohesive, and we’ve seen this in the conduct of the war and the negotiation.”
Iran’s governance has undeniably grown more complex after the deaths of key leaders, including former supreme leader Ali Khamenei. A smaller group of officials, now operating under new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei, is steering the country through war and diplomacy, balancing internal hard-line pressure with external demands from Washington.
Despite internal differences, experts say this leadership circle is presenting a united front. Trita Parsi noted that “different factions of Iranian leadership are more aligned now than before the war,” emphasizing that the smaller decision-making circle is “more united about the strategy they use in the war,” CNN reported.
Tehran has consistently refused talks under current conditions, accusing Washington of lacking “seriousness in pursuing a diplomatic solution.” Officials have also pushed back on claims of infighting. Presidential aide Mehdi Tabatabai dismissed such reports as “a tired political and propaganda ploy,” adding that “unity and consensus… have been exceptional and noteworthy.”
“Talk of divisions among senior officials is a tired political and propaganda ploy by Iran’s adversaries,” Mehdi Tabatabai, the Iranian president’s deputy spokesman, wrote Wednesday on X. “Unity and consensus between the battlefield, the public, and diplomats at this time have been exceptional and noteworthy.”
To reinforce that image, Iran has elevated figures like Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who led negotiations with a broad, cross-factional team,seen as a deliberate show of cohesion.
Even so, disagreements exist. As Parsi put it, “are there differences? Of course there are,” but blaming failed negotiations on Iranian disunity rather than mixed signals from Trump is “detached from reality.”
The mixed messages by Trump shows inconsitent position or policy being treaded by Trump.
Behind the scenes, Iran has shifted into a wartime governing model. Rival power centers have been consolidated into a tighter structure coordinating military and diplomatic strategy, while hard-line factions exert strong domestic pressure against any deal that could be seen as conceding to the US.
According to Hamidreza Azizi, “the system is now operating in a different manner,” and reduced access to the supreme leader “means other officials have more room to maneuver” on decisions of war and peace.
While Iran’s leadership structure has changed but experts believe ran structure is maintaining unity and navigating properly to a far more complicated political and wartime landscape.
