US President Donald Trump departed for Beijing and is scheduled to have a high-stakes meeting with China’s leader Xi Jinping, carrying a packed agenda of trade, war diplomacy, and Taiwan, for his first visit to the East Asian country since 2017 and the most consequential US-China summit in decades.
The two-day summit beginning on Thursday could shape the next stage of rivalry between the world’s two major powers.
Trump will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping on May 14 at the Great Hall of the People, where the two leaders will hold formal bilateral talks followed by a state banquet in the evening. On May 15, a working lunch and a visit to the historic Temple of Heaven are planned before Trump returns to Washington the same day.
When the White House confirmed the visit in February, Washington’s sky-high tariffs on Chinese goods, reaching as high as 145 per cent before a truce was struck in South Korea last October, dominated the agenda.
But the geopolitical situation changed after February 28 when Trump, along with Israel launched strikes against Iran, igniting a war now in its third month that prompted Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, and the scenario compelled Tehran to formulate a board to control the strategic waterway.
The US and Iran are locked in a tense nuclear standoff as Washington argues that the nuclear issue is non-negotiable and Tehran demands sanctions relief, an end to war, release of frozen assets, and a halt to the US naval blockade. President Donald Trump has described Iran’s counter proposal as “totally unacceptable,” as both sides remain far apart on key conditions for any potential agreement.
Therefore, both leaders must discuss tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.
China imports roughly half of its crude oil through the waterway. Although Beijing has cushioned itself with large stockpiles and a diversified energy mix, the broader economic fallout is significant. Oil-price spikes have driven up costs by as much as 20 per cent for manufacturers who rely on petrochemicals.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has publicly called on Beijing to “step up” pressure on Tehran to reopen the waterway. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who met his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi in Beijing last week, called for a “comprehensive cessation of hostilities” while also reaffirming China’s support for Iran’s sovereignty.
China and Pakistan have jointly presented a five-point peace plan and positioned themselves as co-mediators. Senior US officials have acknowledged that Washington believes China will need to play a role in any enduring solution. Beijing, for its part, appears aware that its leverage over Tehran is valuable currency at the negotiating table.
The International Monetary Fund has warned that a global recession remains a real possibility. Since roughly a fifth of China’s GDP depends on exports, a world too economically battered to buy Chinese goods poses a graver threat than the tariff war alone.
Despite the bruising trade war, China’s trade surplus last year hit a record 1.2 trillion dollars, with the United States its single largest buyer. As the tit for tat started from tariffs to Beijing’s restriction of rare-earth exports.
The Taiwan issue will also be taking a centrestage at the meeting as theTrump administration approved an 11-billion-dollar arms sale to Taipei last December, infuriating Beijing. Yet Trump has also publicly questioned whether the US is obligated to defend Taiwan and has called it inadequate in reimbursing America for its security guarantees.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed Taiwan would be raised, stressing that the goal is ensuring the issue does not “become a source of new tension.” China’s military has intensified pressure on Taiwan in recent months, sending warplanes and naval vessels around the island almost daily.
Trump arrives in Beijing at a moment of personal and strategic vulnerability. Iran rebuffed fresh overtures on Monday, publicly taunting the president on the eve of his departure. His inability to close the Iran conflict has raised questions about American power projection.
Trump’s dismantling of traditions of free trade, alliances, and the international rules-based order has handed Beijing ideological ammunition even as China’s own economy struggles with slower growth and rising unemployment. This summit, set against a backdrop more turbulent than any US-China meeting since Nixon’s 1972 opening, may define the trajectory of the world’s most consequential bilateral relationship for years to come.
Although expectations for a landmark trade deal emerging this week remain limited, the more likely outcome is an extension of the October truce, along with a broadly worded joint statement that allows both sides to present the summit as a success.
The world will be watching the summit with great interest, hoping to find a solution to the Hormuz situation that could bring some short-term relief to oil markets and help ease pressure on global energy supplies, which have been strained by the conflict in WEst Asia.
