The US-Israel war on Iran has evolved into something far more complex, a conflict marked by targeted assassinations of political leaders and precision strikes on critical economic arteries, particularly oil and gas infrastructure.
Compounding this is the shifting objective of Washington and Tel Aviv: from regime change to dismantling Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear capabilities.
Twenty-five days into the war, the US has issued a series of contradictory statements. President Donald Trump announced a five-day pause on strikes targeting energy infrastructure, claiming the US is in talks with Iran to end the conflict.
However, the war has expanded to a level which no one anticipated as Iran attacked Gulf nations that host American military bases.
Netanyahu has been treading systematically by dethroning of Bashar al Assad in Syria and US playing its part in Iraq and Libya thus destabilising Middle East .
The United States has surrounded Iran with 19 military bases across the Middle East, supported by a network of over 50,000 troops. These include facilities in Qatar (Al Udeid Air Base), Bahrain (Fifth Fleet headquarters at Juffair), Kuwait (Camp Arifjan and Ahmad Al-Jaber), the UAE (Al Dhafra Air Base and Jebel Ali port), Saudi Arabia (Prince Sultan Air Base), Jordan’s Muwaffaq Al-Salti Air Base, and multiple installations in Iraq and Syria.
Now after facing global energy crisis due to choking of Strait of Hormuz which is located between Oman and Iran, connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, has now become a focal point for both the Trump administration and the wider international community, as a significant share of the world’s energy supplies passes through it.
The economic and diplomatic tool, which the US and Israel did not anticipate, has pushed the crisis into a dangerous new phase. The disruption of oil transit through this critical corridor has caused significant supply delays, increased shipping costs, and exerted upward pressure on global energy prices.
Israel’s strike on South Pars, the offshore gas field shared by Iran and Qatar, known as the North Dome on the Qatari side , intensified an already escalated situation. This was compounded by the US targeting of Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil export terminal in the Gulf.
Iran retaliated by striking on Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, the world’s foremost LNG hub, signalling that the economic dimension of the war.
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said that a new framework will be established after the war governing the Strait of Hormuz, effectively rewriting the maritime rules shaped by the conflict. Beyond the strategic calculations, the human cost has been staggering — thousands killed, millions displaced, and major disruptions to global financial markets, raising fears of a prolonged humanitarian and economic crisis.
Trump began his second term vowing to end foreign wars and bring U.S. troops home. However, he has faced difficulties resolving conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, while simultaneously extending military operations to Venezuela and now Iran, actions widely criticized as bypassing established international norms.
Netanyahu has been habouring ambitions to dominate the Middle East and to neutralise what it views as an existential threat from the Islamic Republic.
Trump, who is fighting Netanyahu’s war is aiming to reshape the regional order in favour of American and Israeli dominance. Yet this strategy and his actions in Venezuela undermines his carefully cultivated image as a peacemaker.
Trump, however, seems to have miscalculated as within a week of launching joint operations with Israel, he met with defence industry executives from Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and Raytheon, urging them to sharply ramp up production of advanced weapons systems.
The goalposts for the war has also shifted repeatedly. Secretary of State Marco Rubio described Iran as a “radical, cleric-led regime” pursuing nuclear weapons, while Trump claimed he acted pre-emptively, believing Iran “was going to attack first.” Rubio later stated that the US strikes had “nothing to do with Israel”, directly contradicting earlier narratives.
The Pentagon, meanwhile, cited the killing of an Iranian official linked to an alleged plot against Trump, a detail that raised further questions about the original basis for the conflict.
The economic fallout has been severe. The Strait of Hormuz has effectively become a contested chokepoint. nergy-dependent economies such as India, China, Japan, and South Korea have faced immediate shocks, with oil prices surging and supply chains coming under serious strain.
The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, intended to destabilise the regime, appears to have had the opposite effect. His son, Mojtaba Khamenei, has emerged as an even more hardline leader, driven by a desire for retaliation. Iran, which had long maintained that its nuclear programme was civilian in nature, now harbours deep mistrust toward Washington, particularly given that strikes occurred while negotiations were still ongoing.
Tehran’s current posture suggests a shift toward greater strategic assertiveness, including potential measures such as imposing transit levies on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, reflecting a broader recalibration of its regional stance.
For years, the US has been perceived as seeking to influence or reshape Iran’s leadership, but such ambitions appear increasingly unrealistic given the country’s strong internal cohesion. Washington has offered no clear roadmap, timeline, or defined objectives, yet remains aligned with Israel in a conflict that risks prolonged instability.
In a scenario reminiscent of the 1973 oil crisis, energy has once again become a geopolitical weapon.
A familiar pattern persists, stalled nuclear talks, shifting demands, and periodic military escalation that derails diplomacy. Israel had long prepared for such a confrontation, while Iran, under sustained sanctions pressure, had shown genuine interest in negotiations before hostilities intensified.
As former diplomat Anil Trigunayat observed, “Washington has repeatedly been drawn into Israeli conflicts, influenced by strong political lobbies and deep strategic alignments. Gaza is one example, and the unresolved Palestinian issue is another.”
America’s record in the region is a troubled one, from the Iraq War to the NATO intervention in Libya, often resulting in prolonged instability and fragile states. Replicating Netanyahu’s objectives in Iran may prove far more difficult, given Tehran’s political resilience and considerable military strength.
The mosaic holds, and with every miscalculation, the endgame grows harder to see. Even the US torpedoing and sinking of Iranian naval vessels has failed to break Tehran’s resolve, as Washington finds itself unable to confront Iran’s Mosaic Defence Strategy designed to resist.
By Arti Bali
