The White House believes it is moving closer to an initial agreement with Iran on a short, one-page MOU (Memorandum Of Understanding) aimed at ending the war and opening the door toward wider nuclear negotiations, according to multiple US officials and sources familiar with the discussions, reports Axios.
As per officials, the next 48 hours will be critical, with Washington waiting for Iranian response on several unresolved points.
Though nothing has been finalised yet, sources have called the current talks as the closest thing to an agreement between the two sides ever since the conflict began.
Under the draft framework, Iran would agree to pause uranium enrichment for a lengthy period, while the US would begin easing sanctions and release billions of dollars in frozen Iranian funds. Both sides would also start lifting restrictions linked to the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping has been severely disrupted for weeks.
Many of the terms laid out in the memo would be contingent on a final agreement being reached, leaving the possibility of renewed war or an extended limbo in which the hot war has stopped but nothing is truly resolved.
Inside the White House, officials have maintained that divisions within Iran’s leadership remain a major obstacle towards reaching any long-term agreement.
Some in Washington are still doubtful that Tehran’s various political and military factions can unite behind even a temporary deal, though there is nonetheless optimism in Washington about a deal at several points during previous rounds of negotiations and during the current war, but have yet to reach one.
The proposed one-page, 14-point memorandum is being negotiated by Trump envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, alongside Iranian officials, both directly and through mediators.
In its current form, the document would formally end active fighting and launch a 30-day negotiating window focused on reopening the Strait, placing limits on Iran’s nuclear programme and unwinding parts of the US sanctions regime, with discussions set to possibly take place in either Islamabad or Geneva.
During that period, Iranian shipping restrictions and the US naval blockade would be eased step by step.
A US official said Washington would still reserve the right to restore the blockade or resume military action if negotiations failed.
One of the biggest sticking points remains the length of the proposed enrichment freeze. Sources say the US is pushing for a moratorium lasting up to 20 years, while Iran proposed five. Current discussions are centred somewhere between 12 and 15 years.
The US also wants automatic penalties if Iran violates the arrangement, extending the mortarium, with Iran agreeing only to enrich its uranium supply for solely civilian purposes up to a limit of 3.67 per cent.
Iran would also commit in the MOU to never seek a nuclear weapon or conduct weaponization-related activities. According to a US official, the parties are discussing a clause whereby Iran would commit not to operate underground nuclear facilities, and further would commit to an enhanced inspections regime, including snap inspections by UN inspectors, according to the US official.
In exchange, the US would gradually lift sanctions and release frozen Iranian assets held abroad.
Two sources also claimed Iran may now be willing to remove its stockpile of highly enriched uranium from the country — something Tehran had repeatedly rejected earlier since the war started. One option reportedly under discussion would involve transferring the material to Washington, though it seems unlikely.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Tuesday that “we don’t have to have the actual agreement written in one day”, calling the negotiations “highly complex and technical.”
“But we have to have a diplomatic solution that is very clear on the topics they are willing to negotiate on and the extent of the concessions they are willing to make at the front end in order to make it worthwhile,” he added.
But Rubio also warned that uncertainty remained over whether Iran’s leadership was prepared to follow through on a deal, calling some senior figures in Tehran “insane in the brain”.
