Mir Shahid Nuclear
The unease and uproar with endangering trend of prospective nuclear war hovering over South Asia is possibly over now. The sensitivity created in the hostile relationship of two nuclear powered countries of South Asia once again put the debate for threat by MAD to the region in particular and world in general. The hostility infact relates the situation triggered by Pulwama attack in which almost 40 Paramilitary troops of Indian security forces were killed by horrific suicide bomber who blew his car with RDX. The JEM claimed responsibility and put forth the name of bomber as local under name of Adil Ahmad Dar from Pulwama ipso facto.
This situation caught severe uproar in the wake of intelligence inputs regarding attacks by proscribed outfits in Kashmir. The opposition of the parties and the possible domestic support with lame duck period intensified the narrative of strike against Pakistan who’s believed to be behind the drastic attack through proxies.
This escalation led the strike in the wee hours of dawn by Mirage jets inside Pakistan triggering panic in the nook and cranny of region. The subsequent dog fight between opposite jets and capturing pilot intensified the security environment with possibility of another war. However the international pressure and the immediate release of captured pilot by Novice politician and PM Imran Khan caught everyone unaware with possible de-escalation.
Now the situation although tense seems to have been staved off with likely calm for time to come. The escalation which led us to brink of war is fought only on the eternal dispute of unsettled Political boundaries of Kashmir. The erstwhile princely state is divided among the three Asian Nuclear Powers without any formal resolution in accordance with wishes and desires of Kashmiris.
The bone of contention to the arms race and rising instability is indeed the presence of unsolved Kashmir dispute and the present escalation barring the compulsions or reasons on either side has caught fire from Kashmir. Isn’t the lasting peace hidden in resolution of Kashmir? What diverges these neighbours apart? What led to arms race? What led to resistance movement of Kashmir? Why Kashmir has been occupied by three countries without existence of its own? These questions are norm of day in the contemporary era without any satisfactory answer from either side.
To its historical side the whole state of J&K was princely state under British rule. The partition plan provided all such states a choice to join either country or remain independent. While on one hand the other states choose to seek their future with either country through referendum, the Kashmir’s instability refrained from any such possibility in this territory.
The Tribal attacks overturned the whole scenario and took the wind out of sail of Sheikh Abdullah who seek help of India on the basis of instrument of accession with commitment from J L Nehru to hold the referendum later. But the escalation and the invasion compelled him to take the dispute to UNSC table which provided for Plebiscite under supervision of UN for lasting solution to be decided by the commoners of whole state.
However, the customary resolution never realised in practice due to irresponsible behaviour on either side of border. It’s pertinent here that Pakistan holds a respectable chunk of territory over and above Saksgam valley of 5100 sq kms gifted to all weather friend China.
Although the dispute was deemed to be under constant contact in the resolutions of UNSC the Shimla Pact between India and Pakistan drove carriage towards the bilateral street without any meaningful engagement. There are two dimensions of the dispute in this regard. On the one side the dispute as projected to be bilateral isn’t bilateral in the literal sense. The dispute is one of independent (J and K was independent country for almost two months after British retreat) territorial state with occupation by three neighbours.
The dispute in this sense isn’t bilateral but a multilateral dispute with Kashmiris an inalienable part and parcel. Therefore the dispute remains to be international even if Shimla Pact deems to have eroded such status. Thence the UNSC solved dispute automatically gets international status due to its possible threatening of world peace at some point of time. Both the countries must accept that dispute is eternal and international with Kashmiris an inalienable part and parcel.
On the second narrative the bone of contention between two Asian neighbours isn’t unsolved as is deemed and believed to be accepted by both the countries to discriminated citizenry of Kashmir. The original provision of British to hold Plebiscite in the erstwhile princely states was kept intact by UNSC in back to back resolutions.
Therefore whether Britain or UNSC, the unbiased solution is already available in front of Global community. The need of hour is the implementation by either country in accordance with Principles of mutual peace and stability. Now the lackadaisical strategy by either country in the respective territories leads to complete unrest and instability. While the resistant movement started after 90’s in the Indian side Kashmir is intensifying through rising domestic support. The Pakistan deems it as their moral responsibility to support the Muslim majority state for successful resolution. But the question most often confronting both sides is lack of commitment and will power.
The history has taught a lesson that almost all wars were fought on the territorial matters. The colonial and anti colonial wars or the world wars were nothing but extreme manifestation of searching and subsequent control of more territories. The wars fought in South Asia after decolonization was mostly fought for this state. The skirmish in the words of Asif Gafor (DG ISPR Pakistan Army) is: “India is yet to accept partition and creation of Pakistan”.
The 1947 war on the Kashmir mainland which separated a major chunk of POK or commonly called Azad Kashmir 1965 war on the friction of mountain passes along LoC, Kargil Confrontation of almost of week et Al are but repetition and reminder of eternal bone of contention. The acquisition of nuclear weaponry by either side has enshrouded the clouds of horrific war in aftermath of Kargil Confrontation. Although the treaty prohibition of attack on nuclear installations and the report in this regard on 1 Jan of every year binds them in a way but the insensitive use of emotions always leads sensitive use of extreme sense of fallout leading to fire and furry.
The averted war which as per reports was heading towards missile attacks if not intervened by America would have put a full stop on the geographical expanse of South Asia and stability of whole world. The insufficient safeguards apart from the basic destructive nature of nuclear weapons would have put the security of whole world at risk. The nuclear weapons hold by both countries in words of Imran Khan” would destroy everything leading to elimination of whole South Asian civilization from Globe “.
The consistent use of proxy wars and intelligence attacks on either side could trigger fallout anytime. The recent scenario proved it once again that both countries are heading towards endangering trend for the peace and stability. Whether it may be domestic Political compulsions or the security safeguards, the two emerging countries are indeed a threat to peace and stability if not taken care off. The episode reminds the old saying of “Short term antibiotic always sustains original disease if not pain sticking to that disease”.
The disease of the relationship possesses the panacea in the resolution of Kashmir. Although the overall environment in and around the desperate state of J and K isn’t conducive for peaceful resolution in near future but the world powers shall awake from slumber otherwise the scramble next time would caught us unawares. Added to this it needs to be kept in mind that ” peace isn’t absence of war rather absence of peace is war “.
The downtrodden locality in Kashmir is bearing the brunt of the relationship of which they have no relation. The killing of almost 75 thousand, the maiming of lakhs, the rape of thousands et Al are but a black spot on the declaration of Human rights. The reports , resolutions and the statements would never keep India and Pakistan away from possible nuclear war unless and until later UNSC keeps commitment of holding Plebiscite under supervision of UN in the quickest possible time lest it should fail to prevent WWIII from reality. Whether the recent episode opened eyes and ears is going to be a lesson for the peace and stability. The solution of Kashmir would prevent the fallout of expected war between hostile neighbours for peace and stability for South Asian countries in particular and world in general.
Writer Shahid Majeed Mir hails from Misribehak Machil Kupwara and can be reached at mirshahid363@gmail.com
