4 Agas in election fray
The upcoming Budgam Assembly bypoll is shaping up to be a high-stakes, four-cornered political contest.
Scheduled for November 11, with counting on November 14, the by-election has emerged as a crucial test for the National Conference (NC), People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Awami Ittehad Party (AIP), and an Independent candidate—each aiming to make their mark in the politically sensitive constituency.
The Budgam seat fell vacant after Chief Minister Omar Abdullah, who had won both Budgam and Ganderbal in the 2024 Assembly elections, chose to retain Ganderbal and resigned from Budgam. His decision has triggered an intense battle that could reshape political alignments and influence in the Shia-majority district.
The PDP has fielded Aga Muntazir Mehdi, son of senior Shia cleric and Hurriyat leader Agha Syed Hassan, while the AIP has nominated Nazir Ahmad Khan. Muntazir Mohiuddin, who recently quit the Apni Party, is contesting as an Independent, and the National Conference has announced Aga Syed Mehmood, son of noted Shia scholar Syed Yousuf Al-Moosavi Al-Safavi, founder of the Anjuman-e-Sharie organization.
Although several others have filed nominations, political observers believe the main contest will be between these four candidates. Meanwhile, the BJP has named Agha Syed Mohsin, another son of a Shia cleric, making this bypoll unique as Budgam will witness multiple candidates from prominent Shia families. Another Aga is fighting as an Independent candidate.
Given the constituency’s strong Shia presence, clerical influence and community loyalties are expected to play a decisive role. NC’s influential MP Aga Ruhullah Mehdi, who commands deep roots and respect in the area, is seen as a crucial figure in determining the final outcome. Whether he actively campaigns for the NC candidate or chooses to remain neutral could significantly alter the political balance.
Political analysts suggest that Ruhullah’s active support could consolidate NC’s traditional vote base, while his silence might dent the party’s chances. “If Ruhullah stays distant, NC could face challenges in mobilizing its cadre. But if he campaigns energetically, Aga Mehmood could gain a clear advantage,” Farooq Ahmad, political observer, told news agency Kashmir Indepth News Service (KINS).
As campaigning gains momentum, the Budgam bypoll is being viewed as a litmus test for political strength in central Kashmir. “Voter turnout, clerical endorsements, and grassroots mobilization will determine who emerges victorious in one of the region’s most closely watched political contests,” he added.
However, Chief Minister Omar Abdullah exuded confidence in the NC’s prospects, reiterating the party’s unity behind its candidate. “Aga Sahab has already said he considers him like his son, and I expect Aga Ruhullah to support him,” Omar told reporters on Monday.
He added that even after vacating the Budgam seat, his government continued developmental works in the area. “We never abandoned Budgam. My ministers and I carried out several works there, and we hope the people will support our candidate based on that record,” Omar said, according to Kashmir Indepth News Service (KINS).
In the 2024 Assembly elections, Omar Abdullah had defeated PDP’s Aga Muntazir Mehdi by a margin of 18,485 votes, underscoring NC’s strong organizational base and Omar’s personal appeal in Budgam.
However, with several influential Shia candidates now in the fray, this bypoll promises to be far more competitive and unpredictable. (KINS) Ishtiyaq Kar
