As India prepares to chair the BRICS foreign ministers’ meeting in May, the escalating conflict in West Asia is set to pose a tough diplomatic challenge, with divisions among member states and complicating consensus-building within the bloc.
Diplomat and West Asia expert Anil Trigunayat said the current geopolitical situation makes it difficult to expect smooth outcomes, particularly given the widening trust deficit between Iran and key Gulf nations such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
“The trust deficit between Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and Iran has further deepened due to repeated strikes on these countries under the pretext of targeting US bases. Violation of their sovereignty is a key issue,” he said.
The ongoing war by the United States and Israel against Iran, has drawn the Gulf Cooperation Council countries deeper into the crisis, with Tehran launching retaliatory strikes across the region. Even as Gulf states face direct security threats, they remain compelled to support Washington due to longstanding security dependencies.
This dilemma has exposed the cost of their alignment with US policy, particularly in the context of President Donald Trump’s Gaza peace plan, which many regional actors view as strategically flawed. While the plan was projected as a pathway to stability, it has instead left Gulf nations navigating a precarious position, supporting US initiatives while simultaneously bearing the brunt of regional escalation.
Trigunayat noted that even if hostilities were to end immediately, rebuilding confidence would take considerable time. However, he added that BRICS has historically included countries with bilateral differences, and may still serve as a platform for engagement.
Trigunayat pointed out that growing disillusionment with US security assurances has pushed Gulf countries to diversify their strategic and economic partnerships, with increasing interest in groupings like BRICS.
“India, being the chair, is already in touch with all member states. With smart and adept diplomacy, the Indian leadership should be able to minimise the impact,” he said.
Assessing the broader geopolitical dynamics, Trigunayat said the United States entered the conflict without a clear strategy and has continued to shift its objectives.
“In my view, the US, especially President Donald Trump, was played into this war by Israeli PM Netanyahu with an imminent threat scare. Washington went in without a strategy and continued to invent new war objectives,” he said.
He added that the financial cost of the war, estimated at over USD 30 billion, is mounting, with Washington now looking to Gulf countries to share the burden.
“Since the war is turning out to be costly without the desired outcome, the US is asking Gulf countries to foot the bill,” he noted.
Warning of further escalation, he said any expansion of the conflict could have severe consequences for the region.
“If the US expands the war through occupation of strategic locations or boots on the ground, it could lead to guerrilla warfare and an all-out war, which will be disastrous for the region,” he said.
On the global impact, Trigunayat observed that while Russia may benefit from eased pressure on its oil exports, it remains constrained by its own ongoing conflict, while China is carefully balancing its interests between Iran and Gulf countries.
However, he cautioned that prolonged instability would ultimately hurt all sides.
“No one will be a winner in this war, and there will be plenty of losers,” he said.
Amid the crisis, India has sought to maintain a delicate diplomatic balance, leveraging its strong ties with both Iran and Gulf nations while engaging in high-level outreach to reduce tensions.
“India has been a trusted interlocutor and respected by all sides,” Trigunayat said, highlighting New Delhi’s potential role in facilitating dialogue.
Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is scheduled to visit New Delhi on May 14-15 to participate in the BRICS foreign ministers’ meeting, according to Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko. The meeting is expected to help shape the framework and key outcomes for the BRICS summit under India’s presidency.
On the sidelines, Lavrov is also expected to hold bilateral talks with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and other officials.
India, which assumed the BRICS presidency on January 1, has outlined a “humanity-first” approach focusing on resilience, innovation, cooperation and sustainability, with the grouping representing nearly half of the world’s population.
