The people of Nepal, unlike the youth-led ‘revolutions’ of various hues that occurred in many nations across the world, but with varying results, have turned their “Generation-Z” movement of last year into a peaceful and decisive electoral victory.
In South Asia, it matches what Sri Lanka and Bangladesh have recently achieved. Like economic issues and unemployment, the use of digital platforms, which led to street protests by the young, remains common.
Like them, this should open the way for Nepal’s path to political stability and economic development, which have been delayed since the end of the monarchy. Nepal has witnessed a frustrating political merry-go-round of 14 governments led by as many prime ministers in the last two decades.
Poised to lead the Himalayan nation is Balendra (Balen) Shah, just 35, a popular rapper-turned-activist and a former Kathmandu Mayor. A structural engineer by training, he has already done solid work in civic affairs like waste management and public health.
Balen Shah represented the Rashtriya Swatantra Party (RSP), which came fourth in the 2022 general election but has won decisively, pushing the long-time big guns back.
A popular figure when Nepal witnessed violent street protests last year against the K P Sharma Oli-led government, he was talked about as the likely replacement. Reports say he facilitated the appointment of Suseela Karki, a former Chief Justice. As the interim prime minister, she oversaw an election that won public approval and was recognised by foreign observers.
Balen Shah’s electoral win over Oli, who was forced to resign amidst the protests, marks a serious setback to the old guard that has dominated the political scene, forging and breaking coalition governments.
They include the centrist Nepali Congress, the monarchists and various communist parties with avowed Marxist and Maoist leanings.
The Nepali voter appears to have disregarded the appeal of the last monarch, Gyanendra Shah, who wanted Nepal’s problems solved before the elections were held.
A good augury from the election is the broad acceptance of the change, at least initially, as the results trickle in. Former Prime Minister Pushp Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’, coordinator of the Left parties, has said that he will “work as custodian of old and new parties.”
The elections are a setback to the traditional political class from the hilly region, who have produced all prime ministers and much of the political elite. In partial terms, it marks the rise of the Madhesis who primarily inhabit the Terai (Madhes)—the flat, fertile plains of southern Nepal bordering India. They speak Maithili, Bhojpuri and languages prevalent in northern India.
Balen Shah is a Madhesi, a Maithili Rajput son of an Ayurveda practitioner. His family moved to Kathmandu, where his father was posted. He is married to Sabina Kafle, a public health worker. The couple has a daughter.
Historically, India has been Nepal’s most influential external partner, with deep social and cultural links.
Since the monarchy’s advent, Nepal, never colonised by the British, has sought to use its location between India and China to gain an advantage, beyond survival. The growing Western presence and the Chinese influence across South Asia, with geopolitical implications, have changed much in landlocked Nepal.
Unsurprisingly, all three have an abiding interest in Nepal and watched the just-concluded elections with deep interest. India and the West both perceived that Beijing influenced Kathmandu when the communists were in power, but it could not keep them there.
India’s traditional economic support has enhanced in recent years, even as China steps in with projects under the Border and Road Initiative (BRI). For the US, confronting China is part of its South and Southeast Asia endeavour.
As for India, it will need to watch the rise of Balen Shah, who has been linked to controversies like the border dispute and redrawing of the map that shows part of Indian territory within Nepal. This should add to the renewed ‘nationalist’ surge, of which India may yet be a target and needs delicate handling.
(Author is a veteran journalist and foreign affairs analyst. Views are personal)
