Sumera B Reshi Opportunities
The 19th summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) opened on 13th & 14th June 2019 in the Kyrgyz capital, Bishkek. Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Kyrgyz President Sooronbai Jeenbekov, and the leaders of other SCO member states – Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, India, and Pakistan were supposed to meet behind closed doors, away from the media glare for what Bishkek called ‘narrow format’ talks. The leaders of SCO observer states – Afghanistan, Belarus, Iran, and Mongolia also joined the meetings later on 14th June. Prior to the meeting, China made it clear that the SCO summit will discuss economy-related issues and security cooperation with a focus on counterterrorism, but the summit isn’t aimed at ‘targeting’ any country. The announcement came owing to the frosty Indo-Pak relations after Pulwama fidayeen attack.
The SCO was originally rooted in a 1995 treaty, christened the Shanghai Five in 1996, with China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan as members. Uzbekistan joined in 2001 and the group initially focused closely on military and border matters between China and the erstwhile USSR. The group transformed into an SCO with ambitions of deeper cooperation. However, another motive behind the creation of SCO was to limit the US influence in Central Asia.
After years of indecisiveness and delay, India and Pakistan were formally included in the group in 2017. Casey Michel, a graduate student at Columbia University’s Harriman Institute, focusing on post-Soviet political development wrote in The Diplomat: “The inclusion of both India and Pakistan will not only expand the SCO’s geographic writ, pushing it that much closer to a pan-Asian forum, but, with India’s inclusion, the SCO suddenly finds itself with that much more geopolitical heft.”
The SCO’s eight members now account for about half of the world’s population, a quarter of the world’s GDP, and about 80 per cent of the Eurasian landmass. Two of the SCO members are permanent members of the UN Security Council (Russia and China), and four are nuclear states (Russia, China, India, and Pakistan). Three of the SCO members are part of the BRICS grouping (Russia, China, and India). All of this grants considerable perceived political value to the SCO.
In recent times, SCO has increasingly become the object of debate and commentary among key decision-makers and policymakers across the vast region it covers and beyond. Some analysts refer to the SCO as a novel non-Western platform for global governance or characterize it as a new paradigm of international relations.
Nevertheless, some analysts believe that if SCO is left mismanaged, it could turn into an arena of conflicting national interests and for this reason, the SCO was founded in 1995 to avoid all these conflicts. SCO houses four nuclear powers and all having differing national international agendas. Analysts fear that its newest member –nuclear India and Pakistan are crucial factors in the SCO’s harmony or possible discord and both the arch-rivals expect to have a bigger say in influencing for intensive action in addressing security and defense issues in Central and South Asia by means of this membership. Initially, the continual turbulence between India & Pakistan was a concern of regional observers – can the SCO’s Shanghai Spirit – ‘mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality, consultation, respect for diverse civilizations and the pursuit of common development’ as per the Chinese principles thrive if some of its members are on the edge of conflict with regularity? And the experts answer in affirmative. In the past, the SCO has weathered conflict between members with a combination of fingers-in-the-ear, ignoring of tensions and platitudes about respect for internal affairs and appeals for stability. But often, the persisting tensions has restricted the group’s ability to operate beyond the boundaries of gossip shops and counterterrorism exercises not to mention challenges its international credibility. Undeniably, the addition of India and Pakistan gave the SCO a broader region and a larger percentage of the world’s population. Nonetheless, the inclusion of India and Pakistan introduced new points of friction that destabilized the believability of the Shanghai Spirit.
The most recent and obvious friction between India and Pakistan reached an all-time high when 40 security men were killed in a fidayeen attack in Pulwama, South Kashmir. The so-called subsequent Indian airstrike and in response the downing of an Indian jet further escalated the tensions. Keeping the Pulwama fidayeen attack in view, both India and Pakistan shelved off the bilateral discussions on the sidelines of the SCO. Premier Modi and Khan refused to meet but it was more than obvious that the Indian media determined the course of action for PM Modi in SCO and other internal tours.
Both India and Pakistan agree that the SCO is able to provide a platform for regional cooperation and connectivity and the Cooperation can contribute to refreshed relations between Pakistan and India. But this is all verbally and in reality, both of them suspect each other’s views on SCO. India and Pakistan often assure that their unresolved disputes are not international or multilateral which according to expert’s mean both should refrain from the temptation to use multilateral for a like the SCO for raising bilateral claims and complaints. Therefore, the SCO intrinsically is not a platform for harmony or discord, rather it is what the members make of it.
Moreover, the significant issue is the fundamental interactions of powers, particularly nuclear powers within the SCO. Beijing’s support for Pakistan and Moscow’s bid for New Delhi should be viewed as a counterbalance action between China and Russia.
In Bishkek, Modi held a bilateral meeting with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and presented a template to further SCO Cooperation is known as ‘HEALTH’ – Health Care, Cooperation, Economic Cooperation, Alternate Energy, Literature and Culture, Terrorism Free Society and Humanitarian Cooperation respectively.
Addressing the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit, Modi highlighted the spirit and ideals of the SCO to strengthen cooperation in the fight against terrorism. Besides, the several key bilateral meetings, multilateral meeting were conducted with the Heads of State. The summit also garnered increased scrutiny on account of ongoing tensions in West Asia and the US-China trade war. The presence of Iran and Afghanistan as observers also makes it an important venue to discuss vital regional issues.
The Bishkek Declaration
On terror, SCO condemned terrorism ‘in all its forms and manifestations.’ There was support for the WTO and the multilateral trading system, and the members noted the need for increased cooperation among SCO member states in trade and services.
However, concrete proposals for the same were few and far in between. The 2018 communique on simplifying trade procedures remains in its initial stages. A document regarding cooperation among members on Digitalization and Information and Communications Technology was signed at the end of heads of state meeting. SCO’s Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) also finds a special mention where the foreign ministers discussed ways to strengthen the fight against terrorism, extremism, drug trafficking and organized crime among others.
Furthermore, the declaration called for ‘consistent implementation’ of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and asked all participants ‘for comprehensive and effective implementation of the document,’ a year after the US pulled out of it.
The Bilateral Agenda
Apart from the multilateral talks, several important bilateral meetings took place on the sidelines of the summit. Premier Modi held discussions with Chinese president Xi Jinping, Russian president Vladimir Putin, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and also combined a bilateral visit to Kyrgyzstan – indicating India’s continued efforts to balance its relations at a tricky time in regional and global politics.
Since SCO opens a window of opportunities for India, however, it throws India into many challenges and one among them is the closeness of Russia and China, even as India has promoted better relations with the US. One of the major factors for Russia pushing India’s inclusion into the SCO was to balance China’s power, but as per analysts, the post-2014 realities have altered some of those geopolitical equations.
Like India, Pakistan is viewed as a significant regional act due to its geostrategic location, crucial to both its involvement in the Afghan-Soviet War and participated in the War on Terror in Afghanistan as a non‐NATO partner. Pakistan’s inclusion to the SCO occurred during a period of significant transformation in Asia driven mainly by China’s ambitious BRI and the economic activity it has engendered. According to a research paper published on 21st April 2019 “Conflict or Corporation”, ‘strategically, China needs the SCO, not only to promote its economic interests in the region but also to affirm its influence across the broader span of Central and South Asia.” Chinese influence in the region possibly now surpasses that of the United States, and Beijing aims to transform the region into an economic hub by engaging neighboring states at bilateral and multilateral forums. Pakistan’s participation in these forums makes it an important regional player, and membership of the SCO represents the natural progression of its alliance with China.
And Pakistan firmly believes that the path to regional peace and stability lies in economic connectivity and development. CPEC as a lynchpin for regional economic integration and connectivity would bring SCO a step closer to achieving its vision of regional economic integration. Pakistan’s membership in the SCO is therefore driven by the goals of economic and strategic cooperation. As stated by a prominent Russian political analyst, Andrew Korybko, “Pakistan’s geopolitical significance in Eurasia, is characterizing it as ‘the ‘Zipper’ of Pan‐Eurasian Integration.”
However, analysts believe that India’s inclusion could frustrate China because of the rising geographical completion between the Asian giants and different approaches to counterterrorism. It is likely that China may not have wanted India to join the SCO because of the above-mentioned reasons but it was Russia, which first proposed India as a member and its aim was to contain China’s growing influence in the organization. Moreover, Russia is concerned that post-Soviet SCO members — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan — are drifting too far into China’s geo strategic orbit. But as Russia sponsored India, China invited it ‘all-weather friend’ Pakistan in SCO’s ambit.
Unquestionably, the SCO offers numerous opportunities to India and Pakistan for cooperation in a range of areas like counterterrorism and energy trade and may also help to build interdependence – a prerequisite for bilateral dialogue, nevertheless, there are factors that prevent full cooperation on these matters. It is imperative to say that the volatile security issues in Afghanistan may delay energy trade, Indo-Pak cooperation on counterterrorism through SCO isn’t possible. Thus, the need is for greater cooperation to yield the fruits of the SCO, which has countless economic opportunities in its kitty.
