Dr Muzaffar Shaheen
At long last, Pakistan in this region, has fallen prey to the Global great game; the game of World economic tug- of-war between the Sino-Russian clique and the America; thiss all happens after a successful regime change operation in Sri Lanka last year.
India has recently expressed concerns on American threat to its stability after Chinese aggression on its borders.
Inescapably, Pakistan forms the core of Chinese Belt and Road initiative (BRI) the terminus a quo of which is CPEC passing through the vast length of Pakistan, from Gawadar to Karakorum, that finally enters north-eastern border of Xinjiang province in China.
Recently, the American concerns have doubled on Sino-Russian intentions to connect CPEC with Afghanistan unto Central Asia and Caucus region, after return of Taliban government in Kabul last year.
China and Russia are understood to have started working in close association with Taliban and have undertaken several developmental projects in Afghanistan.
The BRI comprises a Silk Road Economic Belt – a trans-continental passage that links China with South East Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, Russia and Europe by land – and a 21st century Maritime Silk Road, a sea route connecting China’s coastal regions with South East and South Asia, the South Pacific, the Middle East and Eastern Africa, all the way to Europe.
Given that Pakistan decides to move away from Sino-Russian camp and chooses to be in American political orbit the China’s world order changing dream project, the CPEC, might face several obstacles or failures. Thus being the focus of contention, both America and China are supposed to have large stakes in Pakistan, which is consequently in a sandwich geo-political mode while the two world giants are busy locking horns.
This culminated into terrible pulls and pressures on Islamabad by Washington to overthrow pro-China PTI Government last year. The fact that most powerful military establishment of Pakistan duly aided and trained by Pentagon has made it easy for Washington to infiltrate its military top brass ranks who eventually overthrew Imran Khan’s government believed to be in close proximity to Sino-Russian camp with a pursuit of independent foreign policy and denial to condemn Russian invasion of Ukraine; has sparked Sino-Russian vexation bringing to a grinding halt all Sino-Russian economic cooperation with Islamabad. Critical economic crisis is looming large in the country now.
Beyond a shadow of doubt Pakistan as of now is in accomplished control of Washington with her dozens of diplomats landing directly in Army General head quarters Rawalpindi, issuing necessary instructions to military top brass as to how to prevent unyielding and diligent Imran Khan from returning back to power.
The tremendously spiking public support that is gathering behind him is unnerving the military top brass and the Washington’s political engineering is facing newly emerging challenges every now and then.
Assassination bid on Imran Khan has previously failed and has in turn heightened his popularity graph. What has been matter of real concern for the Pakistan military establishment and the America is the present political dispensation of amalgam of 14 parties the PDM led by Shahbaz Sharief in harness has brought havoc to the already hobbling national economy.
The all weather friends, China, Saudi Arabia, The Arab Emirates, Qatar, Russia and Turkey have reasonably refused to support the falling economic structure of Pakistan. A cold war between the Chinese and American camps is gradually turning hot in Pakistan leaving her desperate in times of economic debacles with the renewed terrorist onslaught in Frontier province and Baluchistan.
The country’s foreign reserves are left to less than 4 billion from that of 22 billion as left by PTI government in April 2022, dragging the country to the brink of bankruptcy. The oil and gas prices and electricity tariffs have sky rocketed and the country is pushed to a future of anarchy and lawlessness with no signs of clemency shown by IMF which operates under the US influence.
The political reconciliation between the military leadership and the opposition that is thronging to roads is not quite visible. The Chinese economic corridor through Pakistan along with the Dragon’s design to connect Kabul and Central Asia with it has a strong possibility of a pro-active Sino-American face off in the region that can even be catastrophic to the entire region by the Russian involvement.
This is particularly fearful in the wake of America’s enhanced pressure on Islamabad to provide air bases to her bomber air crafts that would ultimately target Sino-Russian projects in Afghanistan and help import fresh terrorist wave in Pakistan resulting in an unending war between Islamabad and Kabul.
The analysts in the region believe that heightened political and economic instability in Pakistan would for sure have a fall out in the entire region particularly the bordering countries like Afghanistan, Iran and India, whose peace and progress would have to pay a price; and the only beneficiary emerging out of it would be Washington.
