Asem Mohiuddin Political Realities
The recently concluded general elections in Jammu and Kashmir threw many surprises. Amid boycott calls and separatists violence, the voter turnout in Kashmir valley relatively remained low and the elections in Jammu and Kashmir were concluded with just 44 per cent polling.
However, what was more surprising that two dominant political dispensations Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Congress were literally decimated in the process. On the other side National Conference (NC) which suffered a massive defeat in 2015 Assembly elections resurfaced on the political scene claiming all the three parliamentary seats in Kashmir region.
On the other side Bhartiya Janta Party which secured the leading role in 2014 Assembly elections in Jammu region again proved its position as undisputed.
BJP not only swept all the three parliamentary seats of Jammu and Ladakh region, however, it secured approximately 46 per cent vote share with all other political parties including Congress left to nail biting.
Going through the electorate, the Assembly elections which are long due in the region have set the new debate in political circles and polestars are expecting a hung assembly verdict, yet again when the elections take place.
The Jammu region seems to have reposed its political faith in the BJP and may again elect it as its single largest political party. Last time in 2014 BJP won 25 Assembly seats in the region and entered into an alliance with PDP after later won 26 seats.
In Kashmir, it seems the National Conference may secure the majority of seats in the upcoming elections though the present verdict do not suggest its full majority and pave way for its alliance with BJP.
However, it is not the alliance of NC with BJP that may set the fresh debate in the coming elections. The expected verdict in the upcoming assembly elections may change many political realities of state.
This is most likely that BJP may have the upper hand in the elections and may secure more seats than any other political party. The largest mandate by the people may put the BJP in commanding position and may claim the post of chief minister in the political partnership.
Irrevocably, the crown was predominantly left with the Kashmir based political parties so far in the only Muslim majority state of India. It only happened once when PDP and Congress forged the political alliance in state in 2002 due to hang verdict and shared the crown for three years each though later the Assembly got dissolved. Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad took over the Chief Minister’s post for only two years after PDP withdrew its support in 2008.
The further political complications that Kashmir based parties may face in stopping the BJP from tinkering with special position of Jammu and Kashmir including Article 370 and Article 35 A. Despite the unchanged position on its political agenda in Jammu and Kashmir by BJP, the Jammunities have given the full mandate to the party proving that majority of people in Jammu have no issues in case of any tinkering with the special positions of the state. On the other side in Kashmir the political parties and separatists are on the same page and vowed to defend Article 35 A and 370 come what may.
Article 35 A protects the demographic status of Jammu and Kashmir and empower its legislature to define its permanent Residents (PRC). While on the other side, Article 370 bars any direct political intervention by New Delhi in state and bars to enact any law in state directly. Under this article, the state has a separate constitution.
Given to the present political realities of state, it is widely to be seen how the Kashmir centric political parties may stop BJP form tinkering with the state’s special position given to later’s overwhelming political mandate form Jammu and Ladakh regions.
Meanwhile, some political pundits believe that the present verdict of people may not be taken as only parameter to understand Jammu and Kashmir politically. Observers believe that the voters often set priorities differently for both the elections and the trend may drastically change in the Assembly elections.
You cannot afford to write off National Conference and Congress in Jammu region entirely. They may suffer given to ongoing Modi wave but its roots are deep and intact. In general elections people vote normally for the Prime minister candidate but for their day to day grievances the local political leader is priority,” says Mushtaq Wani a professor who teaches politics.
Wani says that what will be more depending in the Assembly elections, the selection of candidates for Assembly segments. The potential and power of MLA is more considered than the political party in local elections.
“You have the day to day grievances that you don’t except to be addressed by the Member of Parliament or Prime minister. When you choose your candidate for general elections you decide the fate of country and when you vote in local elections you chose direct benefits,” he adds.
And then you have also the influence of former Mla’s wielding in their respective constituencies.”
The political observers, however, perceive BJP’s meteoric rise in Jammu and Kashmir as major threat to regional political dispensations. They warn the regional parties and suggest them to unite to secure their existence.
“There will be a coalition government. If NC will go with BJP for coalition it may suffer the same fate as PDP. Plus people will not forgive them for betrayal as BJP wants to decimate the regional parties and form a majority government in J&K,” says Mushtaq ul Haq Sikander, a writer and political observer.
“PDP, NC and Congress should work out some pre poll alliance to keep BJP from coming to power.”
Back in Kashmir, the elections have also set the new surprise with new two political entities Peoples Conference and Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) leading at two and seven segments respectively. AIP party led by just one man Er Abdul Rasheed secured the top position at seven assembly segments including Karnah, Langate, Uri, Gulmarg and Baramulla.
Sajad Lone’s PC took the lead in Handwara and Pattan constituencies.
This has also set the beginning for the new mainstream political forces in North Kashmir where the National Conference and PDP were sharing their clout in different political segments. The results may be different in coming Assembly elections but the prevailing situation is suggesting a big fight for both against the new emerging political forces.
In Srinagar, NC has taken the lead at all the 15 political segments suggesting its grand come back in Assembly elections.
South Kashmir, the home constituency of PDP president Mehbooba Mufti served a complete shock for the party. Until these elections, the common say was that south Kashmir is ruled by either separatist ideology or the PDP. However, the verdict of people didn’t only show their loyalties towards National Conference, the people have also chosen Congress at Number two leaving PDP at number 3.
Interestingly, the BJP has also secured a lead in Tral segment which is being attributed to the strict boycott by the people. Once the Assembly elections in the state are held, the political fights are highly expected.
