The America is almost out of Afghanistan since talks between the Taliban and the US in Qatar are positively progressing. According to New York Times, the Taliban had agreed to the conditions of United States that it will not allow its soil to be used by Islamist insurgents or by Al-Qaida especially against the interests of America. While the most of the agreements mutually agreed are yet to be public, however, it is reported that America has also agreed upon certain conditions put forth by Taliban.
America has over 14000 troops deployed in strife torn country which the NATO invaded 17 years ago. The war was waged on the country by the former president of US, George W Bush after Afghanistan refused to hand over Al-Qaida Chief Osama Bin Laden and Taliban Chief Mullah Mohammad Omar, both accused for plotting the attack on world trade centre that killed over 3000 people in 2001 and united the world against terrorism.
In case the deal between US and Taliban strikes, this will be a first victory for Trump to consolidate his political position ahead of upcoming presidential elections in the country. Trump had promised to withdraw the troops from both Syria and Afghanistan during his previous election campaign.
He had said that US will not fight the war of other countries and lose its men and money. Every country shall pay to America if it fights a war for them. Meanwhile, the move would also ease the tensions for Pakistan which had majority of its troops deployed on western borders.
The Afghanistan’s president Hamid Ghani had accused Pakistan of launching aggression in their country through porous borders and forced Pakistan to deploy more 60000 troops few months back to patrol its borders. Pakistan is also home to over 2 million Afghan refugees affected by the war and America had accused Pakistan of making some refugee camps as safe sanctuaries for terrorists and attacks the American forces.
However, Pakistan has repeatedly been maintaining that peaceful Afghanistan is in the interests of Pakistan. As the Pakistan along with Qatar and China are the primary witnesses to the deal, India has not been kept in it notwithstanding its role and concerns for peaceful south Asia. It is aptly considered a China, Pakistan strategy of keeping India out since it shares animosity with both the neighbours.
This is despite the fact that India has spent billions of dollars in the war torn country in its reconstruction programme and shares strong relations with Ghani led regime. After the BJP led by Prime Minster Narender Modi took over in 2014 the NDA regime has specially focused on developing the relations with Afghanistan. India’s investment in Afghanistan is aimed to develop relations with Afghanistan as a strategic partner in South Asia and serve its interests against Pakistan.
So evident from the soaring relations between Pakistan and India, it is unlikely the prior would allow latter to succeed its strategic interests in Afghanistan. Experts have already warned of tense years ahead for India in Kashmir given to US withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Pakistan will pull out its major troops from the border and may shift focus on borders sharing with India. It is also apprehended the huge refugee population of Afghanistan may serve as fodder for the Pakistan government to keep pot boiling in Kashmir after pushing maximum number of militants into Indian side. Ironically the situation in the region is already disturbing. So India needs to draw its attention towards the border state before it is too late.