The Iran-US-Israel war is now in its fourth week with no immediate end in sight.
Current assessments and reports as of March suggest that the war has indeed evolved into a prolonged and complex confrontation, characterized by both tactical successes and significant Strategic Miscalculations, particularly about Iranian military capacities and capabilities by the US and Israel.
Both, US and Israel, were perhaps under the impression that the targeted killing of Iranian leaders like Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and others would end the war and Iran would not retaliate, like in 2025 when Iranian nuclear facilities were attacked or in 2020 when Iranian General Qasem Suleimani was killed in Iraq. Every time Iran did not retaliate like it now does.
Also, US was smug after the Venezuela operation which lasted a few hours with no resistance.
But Iran, this time, proved the US wrong. That was the US’s biggest Miscalculation.
While both sides have conducted intensive military operations against each other, there are several areas where US and Israel were over confident and got caught napping.
US President Donald Trump has reportedly admitted that a simultaneous Iranian attack on multiple US and Israeli bases caught them by surprise.
The Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM) attack by Iran on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean region, 4000 km away, added a new dimension to the war as it indicated the long-range capacities of Iranian missiles. Also, Iranian missile attack on Israel’s nuclear facilities in South Dimona city on March 22 proved Israeli missile Defence system’s vulnerability. Israeli authorities have said they will investigate why Israeli interceptors failed to intercept the incoming missiles.
Iranian leaders have repeatedly said US and Israel are in for surprises if they send ground forces into Iran.
Despite major strikes on nuclear and military infrastructure in June 2025 and again in February 2026, Iran’s government has not collapsed as some had hoped. Instead, Tehran’s stance got hardened. Some analysts have said the US had failed to assess Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities. Even after operations like ‘Roaring Lion’, Iran has maintained enough inventory and continued retaliatory strikes on US bases and regional targets.
Besides the Strategic and Military Miscalculation, the Economic Miscalculation is undoubtedly the biggest mistake of US and Israel. Closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz by Iran and attacks on Gulf countries hosting US bases has significantly impacted global energy markets. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has brought a tsunami in world energy markets with crude prices jumping up to more than 100 USD a barrel.
After attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities in 2025, the US believed that Iran’s nuclear programme had been set back by at least two years. However, reports now indicate that Iran may have concealed its highly enriched uranium stockpile.
With Iranian attacks on Gulf countries hosting US bases, the war entered a proxy stage, extending beyond direct strikes and creating a multi-front unconventional war.
In addition, Trump’s increasing rhetorical statements like ‘’Iran wiped off the map’’ or ‘’100 per cent’’ decimated with its Army finished, air force destroyed or Navy under the sea, are no less responsible. These statements were followed by surprise retaliatory missile attacks by Iran.
Trump’s statements indicate his gross Strategic Miscalculation and euphoria and inadequate intelligence reports which have directly contributed to the war’s prolongation and unpredictability.
On March 20, Trump asserted that Iran’s military was “obliterated” and “dead.” Trump has repeatedly said from the beginning that the war would be a “four-five week’’ operation. Yet as of March 23 (today), there is no end in sight.
Trump’s provocative rhetoric is indeed a primary driver for Iranian defiance rather than capitulation.
Threats to leave “nothing left” of Iran and blow it ‘’off the map’’ have been interpreted by Tehran as existential threat, hardening their resolve.
Trump seemed to have softened his stand when he said that he was ‘’winding down’’ operations against Iran. But the attack on Iran’s Natanz nuclear enrichment site following the statement, proved his unpredictability.
Iran also on Sunday put six conditions for ending the war.
Despite the soft and conciliatory-appearing statements, war continues to rage.
BY RAMESH BHAN
