US President Donald Trump is once again at a crossroads in the conflict with Iran, but with each passing day his options appear to be shrinking while the political and military costs of any decision continue to rise.
After 13 consecutive nights of US airstrikes around the Strait of Hormuz, Washington paused its bombing campaign for a third straight night on Sunday, saying the break was intended to create space for diplomacy. At the same time, the White House stressed that US forces remained “locked and loaded” should military operations need to resume.
The pause reflects growing concern within the administration over the diminishing military returns of the operation and the mounting political, economic, and strategic costs of a prolonged conflict.
The pause comes nearly five months into a conflict Trump had once suggested would be resolved within weeks. Despite an intensified air campaign aimed at forcing Iranian concessions, Tehran has shown little indication of backing down from its core demand to retain control over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the issue that exists at the heart of the latest confrontation.
Iran has confirmed that deputy foreign ministers held talks with Oman in recent days, but there has been no public sign of a breakthrough. Iran continues exchanging messages with the United States, but conditions for negotiations are currently absent, Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said, accusing Washington of undermining diplomacy through its military actions.
In an interview with Austria’s ORF television, Baqaei said Iran’s immediate priority is defending its sovereignty rather than engaging in negotiations.
“We are exchanging messages, but our priority now is defending Iran’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, and people,” he said.
Behind the scenes, senior US military officials have increasingly questioned whether continued airstrikes can achieve additional strategic gains.
According to Axios, US Central Command (CENTCOM) chief Admiral Brad Cooper recommended ending the bombing campaign, arguing it had reached the limits of its effectiveness. Cooper reportedly told Pentagon leaders and the White House that two weeks of strikes had significantly degraded Iran’s ability to target commercial shipping and that most designated targets had already been destroyed.
He said the remaining military objectives could only be completed through a broader return to major combat operations. Without such an escalation, continuing the current bombing campaign would offer little military benefit, according to the report.
The recommendation, along with advice from other senior officials, influenced Trump’s decision on Friday to suspend strikes, Axios reported.
General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, also reportedly warned that dwindling stocks of air-defense interceptors could limit Washington’s ability to protect US forces and regional allies if the conflict widened.
The military assessment reflects a broader recognition within the administration that air power alone is unlikely to force Tehran to alter its negotiating position. CNN reported that recent intelligence assessments by both the CIA and the Defense Intelligence Agency reached a similar conclusion, finding that the latest bombing campaign was unlikely to compel Iran to change course.
Diplomatic efforts continue alongside the military pause. Oman is mediating discussions with Iran over possible arrangements to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping without attacks, although it remains unclear whether any agreement would satisfy Washington’s objectives.
For now, the battlefield has entered what officials describe as a “quiet for quiet” phase, with both sides temporarily suspending major attacks.
Speaking on Sunday, US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz said Trump remained committed to diplomacy while keeping military options available.
“All options remain on the table,” Waltz said, adding that talks with Iran were continuing “at every level.”
Despite the pause, Trump’s strategic choices remain limited.
Military officials have also expressed concerns about the costs of a prolonged campaign. Axios reported that Gen. Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, privately warned Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and President Trump that dwindling air defence interceptor stockpiles could affect the ability to protect US forces and regional allies.
One option would be to resume and expand military operations by targeting additional infrastructure, including transport networks and power facilities. Such strikes could increase pressure on Tehran but would also raise the risk of civilian casualties while offering no guarantee of changing Iran’s calculations.
Another possibility would involve tightening economic pressure through expanded sanctions and maritime restrictions designed to cut off Iranian revenues. However, such measures would likely take months to produce results and could prompt Iran to renew attacks on commercial shipping, increasing pressure on global energy markets.
A third option would be to revive earlier ceasefire proposals. But Tehran is expected to insist on terms that include greater authority over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a concession Washington has consistently rejected.
Although Brent crude prices eased more than 5 per cent on Sunday, concerns remain that prolonged disruption to Gulf shipping could push fuel prices higher. Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen have also threatened alternative shipping routes through the Red Sea, raising fears of broader supply disruptions.
With US midterm elections approaching, Trump faces growing domestic pressure over a war that opinion polls suggest many Americans oppose.
A recent CBS News/YouGov survey found that only 31 per cent of Americans believe they clearly understand the conflict, while 76 per cenr said the war has proven more difficult than the administration initially expected.
Republican Senator Bill Cassidy on Sunday called for a broader national debate on the conflict, urging the administration and Congress to consider whether an alternative strategy exists.
“We need something different,” Cassidy said. That sentiment increasingly reflects the challenge confronting the White House.
After nearly five months of fighting, military advisers acknowledge that airstrikes alone may have reached their limits, intelligence agencies doubt further bombing will shift Tehran’s position, and diplomacy has yet to produce meaningful concessions.
For Trump, each available path carries significant military, political, and economic risks, leaving the administration searching for a strategy that can achieve its objectives without drawing the United States deeper into a conflict that increasingly resembles a strategic stalemate.
